Fun With Draft Stats- Running Backs
The question that must be answered is whether it's worthwhile to spend a first-round pick on a position that the rule book is trying to depreciate?
Recent history simply tells us no. Although running backs selected in round one have a very respectable 48 percent chance of working out (12 of 25 chosen from 2000-2009), the needs that a team might have at another area would likely better represent the value of a position that is being phased out by the rule book, as the NFL is primarily a passing league.
The elite drafting teams in this league try to maximize value at every selection to better their franchises. The more recent trend of choosing running backs past the first round speaks to this value.
As mentioned above, Adrian Peterson and Chris Johnson were outstanding first-round picks that the Minnesota Vikings and Tennessee Titans respectively would make over and over again. But what about the bang for the buck?
Four of the league's top five rushers in 2010 were selected in the draft after the first round. Houston's Arian Foster (undrafted), Kansas City's Jamaal Charles (third-round pick, 73rd overall) and Atlanta's Michael Turner (fifth-round pick, 154th overall) finished 1-2-3 in rushing, while Jacksonville's Maurice Jones-Drew (second-round pick, 60th overall) was fifth despite missing his team's final two games. During the 2010 season, 17 running backs surpassed the 1000-yard mark. 11 of those 17 backs were selected after round one
As stated above, our research says that 48 percent of first-round running backs over the past ten years have worked out. Although that percentage dips in the second round to 33.3 percent (6 of 18), the 14.7 percent dropoff from first-round success to second-round success is one of the lowest differences of any offensive position. In fact, the average drop from first-round draft success to second-round draft success amongst all offensive positions is nearly 20 percent. The success rate of second-round running backs in recent years nearly matches the first round as teams have hit on four of nine selections including the aforementioned Maurice Jones-Drew, Chicago's Matt Forte, Baltimore's Ray Rice and Philadelphia's LeSean McCoy.
Is it possible to still find a quality back after the first two rounds? Although the percentage of draft hits takes a tumble to just 13.6% (3 of 22) in the third round, recent history shows us that both Jamaal Charles and Shonn Greene have become solid starters. After the third round, the percentages plummet to just below 10 percent of running backs selected being solid picks. Amongst those late-round guys you'll find former Pro Bowlers Arian Foster, Michael Turner, Marion Barber and Rudi Johnson, with former 1000-yard backs Ahmad Bradshaw, Ryan Grant and Brandon Jacobs.
Amongst those enshrined in Canton, the vast majority shows former first-round draft picks. Actually 12 of the Top 13 and 16 of the Top 20 of the all-time rushing leaders heard their names called in the first round. But in today's game, in which there is more running back by committee and an emphasis on the passing game the better value is to take your running back after the first 32 picks.
Charlie Bernstein is the host of "The Conundrum" on the Aquarius 7 Broadcasting Network (national), and Editor-in-Chief of Sports Media Interactive, covering multiple teams in the National Football League, NCAA, and National Basketball Association. Charlie covers the Jacksonville Jaguars for FoxSportsFlorida.com and has been featured on the NFL Network and Sirius NFL Radio. Charlie is also a member of the Pro Football Writers of America.
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